EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

• Cornwall Insight sees a ‘substantial’ increase on renewables coming onto the UK grid, as well as fragmented electricity supply and divided battery market revenues in 2026
• 2025 saw the largest amount of wind curtailment in Britain to date, described as ‘widely unpopular but inevitable at scale until the network is expanded’
• The analyst said the general outlook for batteries was ‘positive’ out to 2040

2026 will see an ‘inflection point’ and trends that will ‘reshape the GB power system’, according to two analysts looking at power and electricity outlook.

Cornwall Insight, in its 2026 energy market predictions, cited several interesting trends, including a ‘substantial’ increase on renewables coming onto the grid, as well as fragmented electricity supply and battery market revenues.

The change in the way grid connections will be offered to prospective energy generation projects to ‘first ready, first connected’, could be a ‘game-changer’, according to the analyst in terms of renewables coming onto the grid. “If developers and networks move quickly and meet readiness criteria, we expect 2026 to show the first signs of acceleration,” the company noted.

Regarding the battery market, Cornwall argues that grid constraints have created a regional variation in battery revenues between England and Scotland. In April, the analyst noted that while there is no one-size-fits-all solution to battery trading and operation, the general outlook for batteries in the UK is ‘positive’ out to 2040.

2025 saw the largest amount of wind curtailment in Britain, where wind farms are told to stop generating electricity because the grid cannot move it. Curtailment is ‘widely unpopular but… inevitable at scale until the network is expanded to match the growing generation capacity’, the analyst notes.

The fragmented electricity supply market boils down to network investments, meaning persistent high energy costs, and customers to get greater control over their consumption. “Suppliers of all sizes, including new entrants, will continue to take advantage of rule changes such as market-wide half hourly settlement and the growing demand for better green propositions such as matched Renewable Energy Guarantees of Origin and Power Purchase Agreements to broaden the range of tariff models available to both businesses and households,” Cornwall Insight noted.

ADI Analytics, meanwhile, sees 2026 as a ‘genuine inflection point’ for the global power industry. Globally, the company sees renewables continuing to grow, but not as quickly as in recent years. “The supply chain serving renewables is plagued with overcapacity and will struggle far more in 2026, although some players such as Vestas are driving through pricing and margin discipline,” ADI Analytics noted.

Similarly, grid bottlenecks and fragmentation on policy will continue to be seen. In Europe, the analyst notes, the Grids Package and RED III ‘begin to accelerate approvals and formalise capacity payments for low-carbon firm power.’